Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.007901 0.008919 0.010019 0.011297 0.012742 0.014326 0.016193
2025-12-14 0.006153 0.007521 0.009122 0.011137 0.013607 0.016540 0.020294
2025-12-21 0.005082 0.006561 0.008390 0.010822 0.013975 0.017935 0.023299
2025-12-28 0.004597 0.006208 0.008291 0.011189 0.015125 0.020301 0.027650
2026-01-04 0.004171 0.005856 0.008121 0.011397 0.016031 0.022373 0.031754
2026-01-11 0.003848 0.005592 0.008021 0.011660 0.016996 0.024566 0.036185
2026-01-18 0.003477 0.005215 0.007713 0.011576 0.017429 0.026009 0.039627
2026-01-25 0.003184 0.004917 0.007480 0.011564 0.017942 0.027582 0.043367
2026-02-01 0.002889 0.004583 0.007158 0.011376 0.018152 0.028687 0.046451
2026-02-08 0.002691 0.004380 0.007015 0.011443 0.018753 0.030427 0.050667
2026-02-15 0.002483 0.004140 0.006788 0.011350 0.019074 0.031728 0.054253
2026-02-22 0.002361 0.004029 0.006757 0.011571 0.019923 0.033948 0.059555
2026-03-01 0.002135 0.003727 0.006390 0.011201 0.019751 0.034459 0.061993
2026-03-08 0.001966 0.003509 0.006149 0.011027 0.019903 0.035537 0.065529
2026-03-15 0.001793 0.003268 0.005847 0.010715 0.019776 0.036099 0.068153
2026-03-22 0.001740 0.003240 0.005916 0.011079 0.020905 0.039011 0.075408
2026-03-29 0.001668 0.003169 0.005902 0.011285 0.021754 0.041464 0.081989
2026-04-05 0.001609 0.003117 0.005917 0.011546 0.022722 0.044213 0.089378
2026-04-12 0.001510 0.002980 0.005762 0.011462 0.023008 0.045660 0.094271
2026-04-19 0.001429 0.002870 0.005649 0.011450 0.023432 0.047406 0.099918
2026-04-26 0.001333 0.002726 0.005457 0.011264 0.023483 0.048399 0.104062
2026-05-03 0.001273 0.002648 0.005392 0.011331 0.024062 0.050514 0.110779
2026-05-10 0.001201 0.002539 0.005256 0.011238 0.024295 0.051918 0.116057